Can I take the train few days before New Year? Is it over-crowded?

Hi everybody!

I know that Taking train during the golden weeks ( especially the Chinese New year) is not advised cause very difficult to find Sleeping places (hard or soft).
Does someone know how the traffic is the week before the Golden Week? Do Chinese people start going back home?
This year, it starts 9th February.... How about 3-4-5 February?
If it is not over-crowded, is it 5 days before (like normally) or 10 days before (like the golden weeks times) that you can book the tickets?

I would like to do Kunming-Wuhan (27h), and save as much money as possible but and I won't be able to stand or sit all this time....

Thank you for all your answers!

Paul