tourist (L) visa to student (X)

i'm from the philippines and would want to enroll at a university in china. i applied during summer vacation so the school cannot give me the JW202 i need to get the student (X) type. the school said i can i use a tourist (L) type to enter china then apply for conversion to student (X). the school will help but cannot guarantee.

i would like to ask what are the chances that application for conversion will be denied?

Thanks