How long it will be from Beijing airport to Xidan Lu by shuttle bus Line 2? Is there traffic jam in Beijing at 08pm?

My friend and I need to get from Capital Airport to my hotel, which is 600 meters from Changchun Jie Station. We should arrive around 7:30 PM at the airport. I am debating between taking the 1) shuttle bus to taxi option, 2) pure taxi option, or 3) Airport Express Train --> Metro Line 2--> taxi option.

Option 1 will cost me about 42 RMB for two people (32 RMB Bus + 10 RMB taxi). Option 2 will cost 93 RMB without traffic (based on Baidu map)? Option 3 is too troublesome as it involves two metro transfers and then a taxi.

My question is:
1) For Option 1, how long will shuttle bus #2 take to reach the last stop (Xidan Lu)?
2) For Option 2, is there serious traffic in Beijing around 8PM, such that I should expect to pay more than 100 kuai for taxi?

I don't mind paying an extra 50 RMB for the convenience of a pure taxi trip rather than bus. But if it is 100 RMB or more, I would do the bus. Thoughts?